There is no shortage of accounts of which phase we are in. How far those accounts are grounded.
Divisions such as accumulation, markup, euphoria and decline look clear when reading a chart backwards. The difficulty is that where you currently stand is not knowable at the time. Pausing within a rise and having passed the top are distinguished only afterwards. Phase labels help organise what has happened and are weaker than they appear for judging the present.
Some cryptocurrencies are designed so that newly issued supply halves at fixed intervals. The claim that reduced supply raises price follows from that. The schedule, however, has been public from the start and is known to everyone, and the general view is that known information is already reflected in price. With only three past instances, it is also hard to call statistics.
Cryptocurrencies are different projects yet their prices largely move in the same direction, and correlation rises further during sharp declines. Spreading across several coins therefore diversifies less than expected. Real diversification comes from assets of a different character.
The account that money rotates from one asset into another is frequently used. Periods that look that way do occur, but these names are applied to movement that has already happened rather than describing a fixed order. Assuming a sequence and waiting for the next step leaves you slow when the sequence does not hold this time.
A narrative explaining a past chart can always be constructed. What matters is whether it says anything falsifiable about what comes next. A claim like 'it will rise after a correction' is true whichever way things go and therefore carries no information. Pieces in this topic explain structure and terminology; they do not address which phase we are in.
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